Global Seed Supply: The hidden bottleneck in landscape restoration

Across the world governments and companies have committed to restoring hundreds of millions of hectares of degraded ecosystems. These promises signal a growing recognition that nature is a vital form of infrastructure; fundamental to climate stability, water security, food systems and human wellbeing. Once the causes and threats to degradation have been addressed restoration can begin, and often at the heart of these efforts lie seeds, and here the entire global effort faces an acute and widely under-acknowledged constraint.

Studies have repeatedly shown that today’s supply of suitable, genetically diverse and accessible seed falls dramatically short of what is needed to meet international restoration targets. At the 2025 World Conference on Ecological Restoration, preliminary research presented by Hardwick and Wiecek from the Millennium Seed Bank (MSB) was clear. Achieving global restoration commitments of over 200 million hectares requires thousands of seed banks across the world to provide “billions of seeds”. Yet, there are currently fewer than 500 in existence and seed production capacity is nowhere near high enough to meet the demand. The gulf between ambition and capacity is, therefore, stark.

To further this, the deficit of seeds and seed banks is not simply quantitative. Hardwick and Wiecek’s research showed pervasive shortages of native species, limited availability of herbaceous material (the very foundation of many ecosystems) and chronic weaknesses in species data, including taxonomy, provenance, and indicators of genetic diversity. On top of this, many existing accessions stored in seed banks are old, meaning that even when material is available, it may not be representative of current ecological or climatic conditions. These shortcomings fundamentally compromise restoration design, execution and long-term ecosystem resilience.

These shortcomings play out on landscapes across the world. Without genetically diverse material, restored populations are more vulnerable to pests, pathogens and climate stress (e.g. Taro Lea Blight). A narrow range of species, particularly the oversupply of commercial or exotic tree species, leads to simplified ecosystems that cannot provide the full suite of ecological functions expected of them. Restoration projects stall while suitable seed is sourced, or proceed with inadequate or incorrect material, often resulting in low survival rates, limited structural diversity and expensive replanting cycles. This is not a trivial implementation challenge: it strikes at the core of whether restoration can deliver lasting benefits.

Part of the issue stems from historical seed banking models. Many long-standing institutions, including the MSB, were built for conservation, protecting species against extinction, acting as insurance policies against the worst case scenario. However, the modern day requirements for seed banks have shifted – they must be more than “freezers” and must play an active role in supplying the large volumes of seed and plant material required for restoration. Whilst most conservation seed banking places a premium on long-term viability under low temperatures, using sophisticated drying protocols and genetic representativeness, restoration by contrast, requires locally adapted seed that is produced and deployed rapidly, in bulk, with clear information about provenance, trait variation and ecological function. These conservation-oriented systems, despite their success in safeguarding biodiversity, cannot therefore meet the demands of large-scale recovery on their own.

A shift is needed toward decentralised, restoration-ready seed supply infrastructure: networks of smaller, distributed facilities (“restoration seed banks”) designed specifically for the production, storage and deployment of seed at scale. Importantly, such facilities do not need to replicate the high-specification environments required for long-term conservation. Work undertaken between the MSB and Rainforest Builder in West Africa, for example, demonstrated that viable seed storage for near-term tropical reforestation could be achieved at commercial refrigeration temperatures (5-10°C) - far less demanding than the extreme cold used in conservation banking. This finding underscores that restoration-focused seed supply can be technically accessible and financially achievable.

This low-tech and low-cost example demonstrates what can be done, and opens a pathway for policy mechanisms that are both practical and fair. Governments and lenders could require large infrastructure and resource developers, whose projects most directly alter landscapes, to establish seed processing, storage and propagation facilities as part of their licensing conditions. Such facilities would not only support the restoration obligations of the development itself, but would serve as anchors for wider landscape recovery, supplying material to adjacent communities, conservation programmes and regional authorities. By embedding seed infrastructure into development regulation, countries could rapidly and at low cost, generate a distributed network of “restoration seed banks” that would be sustainable into the long-term and capable of supporting ecological targets and regulation compliance.

Not only this, but these locally rooted seed networks, facilities and infrastructure would provide new local job opportunities, build scientific and horticultural capacity, and strengthen the resilience of rural economies. They would also help to ensure that local and global restoration projects were designed and implemented with the rigour they require.

The urgency is undeniable. The world cannot afford unsuccessful restoration attempts or restoration with only short-lived benefits. Restoration must create self-sustaining systems that ensure the provisioning of ecosystem services and ecosystem function for the long-term. Every reforestation setback, every ineffective grassland restoration, every failed attempt to stabilise a watershed or rehabilitate a degraded forest edge is a risk to climate resilience and biodiversity at a moment in history when neither can withstand further erosion. Investments in seed infrastructure are therefore not peripheral: they are foundational. If we are serious about shifting from ambition to impact, restoring ecosystems at scale, and building landscapes that can adapt to accelerating climate change, the world must invest not only in planting, but in the systems that make planting possible.

Focusing on decentralised, use-orientated restoration seed supply networks offers one of the clearest returns on investment available in the nature-based solutions space. It is an enabling architecture - simple, effective and within reach. What remains now is the collective action to build it.

References:

Jalonen, R. et al. (2017) Forest and landscape restoration severely constrained by a lack of attention to the quantity and quality of tree seed.

Sewell, A. et al. (2020) Global commitments to restore forests, wetlands & protected areas.

Chau, M. et al. (2022) Global Seed Bank Index.

Bond, W.J. et al. (2019) The grassiness of Africa: a continent shaped by fire and herbivory.

Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew (2021) Our Manifesto for Change 2021–2030. Kew Publishing.

Singh, D.; Jackson, G.; Hunter, D.; Fullerton, R.; Lebot, V.; Taylor, M.; Iosefa, T.; Okpul, T.; Tyson, J. -2012-Taro leaf blight - A threat to global food security-Agriculture 2(3)-p. 182-203.

Cover photo: Petri dish with Hyptis suaveolens germination, Credit: Pablo Gómez Barreiro © Royal Botanic Gardens Kew