Climate Resilient Trees and their Role in our Future Landscapes

England's Land Use Framework report champions nature based solutions to combat our rapidly warming world, but how can we design them to cope with the very challenge they are there to face?

England’s first Land Use Framework, published last week, marks an important shift in how we think about the future of our landscapes. For the first time, it sets out a strategic approach to how we might balance food production, nature recovery, and climate resilience, all within our small and densely packed island. In doing so, this report has reopened a debate; should we prioritise land sparing, increasing yields on our most productive farmland while allowing less productive land to return to nature, or land sharing, where all farmland becomes more nature friendly? The reality, as the Framework makes clear, is that both approaches will be needed if we are to make the most of our limited land. What is less widely discussed, however, is how quickly the environmental context underpinning that decision is changing, and what that means for the long-term viability of even our most productive areas.

The future potential soil moisture deficit in 2100 under a 2C warming scenario. Areas in yellow represent those with the most extreme deficit. Taken from th England Land Use Framework

One of the most striking outputs from the report is the projection of future potential soil moisture deficit under a 2°C warming scenario (Figure 5b, shown above). By the end of the century, large parts of eastern England, currently the most productive agricultural region in the country, are forecast to experience severe and persistent soil moisture deficits. When this is viewed alongside the distribution of best and most versatile agricultural land (Figure 12, shown below), the implication is stark. The areas we rely on most for food production are also those most exposed to increasing water stress.

Map of UK land showing the best and most versatile land in green. Taken from the England Land Use Framework

This is not a distant or abstract risk, and has direct implications for food security and the economic resilience of our farming system. It also reframes the role of nature-based solutions, not as a complementary environmental benefit, but as a core component of building productive landscapes fit for the future.

One solution the report highlights is agroforestry; integrating trees into agricultural systems that can help to stabilise soils, improve water retention, reduce heat exposure, and support biodiversity. The effectiveness of these interventions however depends on the trees themselves being suited not just to our current climate, but to the rapidly changing world of the future. In a warming and increasingly variable climate, many of our traditional assumptions about species suitability are being challenged. Relying solely on existing native species may not always deliver the resilience required over the coming decades and instead, there is a growing need to take a more forward-looking, evidence-based approach to species selection.

Could Holm Oak (Quercus ilex), with its exceptional drought tolerance and deep roots become a common feature in our landscapes? Credit: JAH/Alamy Stock Photo

At Kew Reach, we are working with partners to address this challenge by drawing on the scientific expertise of the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew. Building on research led by Kevin Martin, Head of Trees at Kew, we use global data on the natural distributions of tree species and compare these with projected future climatic conditions anywhere in the UK. This allows us to identify species that are likely to be better adapted to future environments, rather than simply those that are well suited today.

This approach goes beyond climate matching alone and incorporates a wider set of considerations that are critical to successful implementation:

Functional traits, such as drought and waterlogging tolerance
Ecosystem service delivery, including soil stabilisation, water regulation, and carbon storage
Mycorrhizal and wider ecological relationships that underpin long-term system health

By bringing these elements together, we can design planting strategies that are tailored to specific sites and objectives, whether that is improving soil moisture retention on productive farmland, enhancing resilience to drought, or supporting broader biodiversity outcomes. The result is a more robust, future-facing approach to nature-based solutions. Rather than retrofitting interventions into systems under stress, we can proactively design landscapes that are better equipped to cope for the conditions ahead.

As the Land Use Framework sets the direction of travel, the opportunity now is to translate strategy into implementation. For landowners, developers, investors, and policymakers, this means making decisions today that will shape the performance of landscapes for decades to come.

With the right species in the right places, nature-based solutions can play a central role in safeguarding the productivity of our most valuable farmland, whilst also delivering meaningful benefits for biodiversity both above and below ground.